Google Users Think BTC Is Dead – 5 Things To Know About Bitcoin This Week

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a new week above $20,000 but heads for a new bearish all-time high as a key support level remains out of reach.

After a quiet weekend punctuated by a brief spike near $22,000, BTC/USD is back near Friday’s close on CME futures.

A “round trip” thus allows traders to pick up where they left off at the end of the last trading session on Wall Street last week, but what could it hold for us in the days to come?

A familiar cocktail of macro threats and continued downtrends make the current climate less than ideal for the average hodler. Despite some relief over the past week, crypto markets continue to bear the brunt of cold feet, which have increasingly defined macro sentiment throughout 2022.

With June’s monthly close fast approaching, Bitcoin faces a few days of reckoning amid what could be its worst monthly performance since 2018.

Cointelegraph takes a look at five potential market triggers for the week ahead as inflation rages and crypto struggles to regain its footing.

Traders expect July to provide BTC price “catalysts”

“Apathetic” is a good word to describe the general feeling of resignation among Bitcoin traders this week.

While the weekend spared the average hodler more nasty surprises, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, the fact remains that BTC/USD is far from where everyone wants it, even in a bear market.

With the key 200-week moving average (WMA) out of reach, there is a precious little bullish sentiment, as evidenced by the “extreme fear” of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index still firmly in check.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

“BTC will capitulate over the next 6 months and reach the bottom of the cycle (anywhere between $14-21,000), then cut around $28-40,000 for most of 2023 and be back around 40 $000 by next halving,” Venturefounder, contributing analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, summarized in part of a Twitter update June 27.

Venturefounder’s thesis is indicative of a broader belief that the bottom has yet to be hit for Bitcoin, and that any relief movement is exactly that – distractions on the way to the lower levels that suck up capital from beginners out of the market and weak hands.

Expectations are that the first week of July could provide the next major bout of volatility on crypto and risk assets.

“Not much is happening overnight in Bitcoin, but I’m expecting a pretty slow week due to the lack of catalysts right now,” said popular Crypto trader Tony. confirmed.

“July will be more of an action packed month for volatility due to the catalysts ahead.”

For Arthur Hayes, former CEO of derivatives giant BitMEX, the first week of next month is a time when the macro stars will line up to punish the hodlers again.

In a blog post earlier in June, he flagged the outsized rate hike and shrinking US Federal Reserve balance sheet as the key backdrop to a risk-asset nightmare.

“By June 30 (end of the second quarter), the Fed will have enacted a 75 basis point rate hike and begun to shrink its balance sheet. July 4 falls on a Monday and is a federal and banking holiday. C is the perfect setup for another mega crypto dump,” Hayes warned.

A “mad dash to the bottom” could therefore only be a few days away.

As Cointelegraph reported, the popular consensus for a true price bottom focuses on the area between $14,000 and $16,000but $11,000 also popped up, which is an 84.5% drop from Bitcoin’s most recent all-time high.

BTC/USD 1 hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: Trading View

How normal is this bear?

While some are panicking to sell their BTC, analysts are scrambling to show that so far there is nothing unusual about the magnitude of the Bitcoin bear market.

Among them is on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which in its recent research paper, “A Bear of Historic Proportions,” called for calm on BTC under $20,000.

“Bear market lows have historically been set with BTC pullbacks of -75% to -84% from the ATH, and taking a duration of 260 days in 2019-20, to 410 days in 2015,” he writes. .

“With the current drawdown reaching -73.3% below the November 2021 ATH and taking a duration between 227 days and 435 days, this bear market is now firmly within historical norms and magnitude.”

What sets the current climate apart is not Bitcoin itself, but investor reactions to price changes.

Although losses remain within historical norms, BTC sales at a loss have eclipsed previous records.

“The recent price crash to the $20,000 region was punctuated by the largest USD-denominated daily realized loss in history,” Glassnode noted.

“Investors collectively locked in a single-day loss of -$4.234 billion, an increase of 22.5% from the previous all-time high of $3.457 billion set in mid-2021.”

In terms of BTC, the losses represent the third largest in Bitcoin history.

Annotated Bitcoin realized net profit/loss chart (screenshot). Source: Glassnode

BTC risks its first monthly close below 200WMA

Three days away from the monthly close in June, things look either worrying or “interesting” for Bitcoin, depending on one’s perspective.

With the bear market in full swing, BTC/USD remains below a key trendline that has supported it through previous macro lows. The 200-week moving average (WMA), which has never declined in value, currently sits at $22,430.

In previous bear markets, as Cointelegraph has reported, Bitcoin has held 200WMA as support while breaking below to set price floors.

This time, however, the level is swinging towards resistance as the bulls’ attempts to follow historical norms repeatedly fail. As such, the end of the month could be “interesting,” says Stock-to-Flow price model creator PlanB, as it would mark the first monthly close below the 200WMA ever.

An accompanying chart uploaded on June 26 shows Bitcoin’s relationship to the 200WMA versus distance to its block halving events, these delineating four-year cycles, which contain market paradigms. bearish mentioned earlier.

Meanwhile, Checkmate, chief on-chain analyst at Glassnode, noted other unusual bearish traits currently characterizing the price of BTC.

Besides being below the 200WMA, he notes, BTC/USD is also below its realized price and deep in the “buy” zone of the Mayer Multiple metric.

As Cointelegraph recently reported, the Mayer multiple shows how far the price is below its 200-day moving average and therefore the likelihood that buying at a specific level will generate asymmetric returns.

“Such events in the past have only occurred in 13 out of 4,360, representing 0.2% of all trading days,” Checkmate wrote in part of a tweet.

Bitcoin dominance drops from multi-month high

It was only recently that altcoins suffered even more than Bitcoin due to the upheavals of several major projects, including Terra and Celsius.

Now, however, the tables are turning – Bitcoin’s dominance has reversed after hitting a high this year, suggesting that altcoins could be the place to be in the near term.

“Bitcoin dominance is dropping sharply. The advantage is in altcoins right now,” popular BTCfuel Twitter account abstract.

After hitting an 11-month high of 48.36% on June 11, Bitcoin’s share of overall crypto market capitalization has fallen to 43.46% at the time of writing – a noticeable change in less than three weeks. .

For veteran trader Peter Brandt, Bitcoin’s relative strength against alts might matter more than it looks for bulls.

“This painting could be the big ‘say’,” he said. argued on market capitalization dominance data.

“A decisive close above 50% would be extremely positive.”

Others meanwhile are convinced that despite the latest reversal, it is not time for altcoins to shine significantly in the future.

According to Venturefounder, holding BTC remains an investor’s best bet.

“Normal Bear Market Narrative Altcoins Bleed Bitcoin Heavier,” Decentrader Trade Suite added in separate comments on the latest dominance action.

“However, over the past 2 weeks, altcoins have (generally) outperformed. So either: “This time it’s different” or “It won’t last”. The dominance remains in a range of 40 to 48%. »

1-day candle chart of Bitcoin dominance. Source: Trading View

Bitcoin is going mainstream again – for the wrong reasons

Bitcoin is more popular among mainstream internet users than at any time in over a year – but is it worth celebrating?

Related: Top 5 Cryptocurrencies to Watch This Week: BTC, UNI, XLM, THETA, HNT

Data from Google Trends confirms that more people searched for “Bitcoin” on Google this month than at any time since May 2021.

Global Google search data for “Bitcoin”. Source: Google Trends

Then, as now, however, BTC’s price action was targeting long-term lows rather than highs, indicating that it is bearish events that are driving mainstream interest.

Last November’s all-time high, by comparison, looks like an anomaly on the radar when it comes to search interest.

As such, activity for phrases such as “Bitcoin is dead” has increased, which social media users have noted as a possible sign that the market is in a “capitulation” phase.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.